Gillingham slips but leads mayoral race

Survey respondents propel young, left-of-centre option Noah Redden into third-place tie: poll

Decided voters: Who would win your vote?

INCUMBENT mayoral candidate Scott Gillingham remains in the lead among decided voters in a new poll that suggests a majority of Winnipeggers want change ahead of Wednesday's election.

Gillingham was backed by 36 per cent of decided voters in an Abacus Data survey released Friday, followed by candidates Kevin Klein (19 per cent) and Mike Vogiatzakis and a surging Noah Redden, who were tied for third (both at 14 per cent).

While a majority of respondents expressed a desire for a new mayor, Curtis Brown, a vice-president with Abacus, said "none of the other candidates has convincingly made the case that they represent the best change."

"In the absence of that, Scott Gillingham definitely has the advantage. He looks likely to be able to win," Brown said.

Abacus conducted the online survey of 685 Winnipeg residents from Oct. 16 to 22.

Gillingham's support among decided voters was 19 percentage points lower than a September survey. Klein's dipped by four points. Vogiatzakis, who was alone in third last month, gained three points, while Redden had the biggest jump (10 percentage points).

Support for eight other candidates — Mazher Alam, Johnny Calderon, Christopher Clacio, Tracey Drexler, Brad Gross, Umar Hayat, Joshua Pagdato and Don Woodstock — ranged between seven and one per cent.

Gillingham, meanwhile, garnered 27 per cent of support, up from 20 per cent in September, when respondents were asked who they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow. Klein was second with 14 per cent (up from eight per cent), followed by Vogiatzakis and Redden (10 per cent each).

Even though Gillingham leads in both categories, 58 per cent of respondents said it's definitely or probably time for a new mayor. One-third said Gillingham definitely or probably deserves a second term. Eight per cent were unsure.

More than half (52 per cent) of respondents expect Gillingham to be re-elected.

"This poll confirms what we're seeing on the ground: we have strong support across the city," Gillingham said in a statement. "But I've been ahead in polls and behind in polls, and I know they can change. What matters is the result on election day and that's where I'm focused."

Gillingham's spokesman, Colin Fast, said internal polling has consistently put the incumbent's support higher, around the 40s. Fast declined to provide internal polling results.

Klein said he's not concerned he received slightly less support in the latest survey because most pre-election opinion polls turn out to be inaccurate when actual votes are counted.

Scott Gillingham continues to hold a clear lead among decided voters. (JOHN WOODS / FREE PRESS FILES)

"A lot of people want a new mayor, so I think those numbers will change," he said. "I would be more worried if I'm Scott, because the numbers have dropped drastically for Scott."

Klein said he believes the election is a race between him and Gillingham.

Vogiatzakis said he's encouraged by his campaign's momentum and the "strong desire for change" he's hearing from residents.

"A poll is a snapshot in time. The election will be decided by the people who cast their ballots on Oct. 28," he said in a statement. "Our volunteers are working hard, and I'm optimistic about what we can accomplish together."

Redden said he thinks the poll is a "pretty accurate display of trends" in Winnipeg.

"I think people are really looking for a new way of doing things, a more progressive voice," he said. "My support has increased quite a bit, and people are really just starting to realize there is this good alternative out there and they're willing to show their support."

About 20 per cent of respondents are unsure of which candidate to support, and others not fully committed to their favoured candidate.

Of decided voters, six in 10 said they're very certain, one-third said they're somewhat certain and six per cent said there's a good chance they could change their mind.

Survey respondents were recruited from an online panel and by text message. No margin of error can be ascribed for the online poll. A margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 3.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20, Abacus said.

The City of Winnipeg said a record 50,767 voters cast advance ballots, a 21 per cent hike over 2022.

University of Winnipeg political science Prof. Aaron Moore said Gillingham appears to be in a good position to win, but having the support of 36 per cent of a poll's decided respondents shouldn't be considered a vote of confidence.

"It's a higher proportion than what he won with in the last election, but he's the incumbent this time and there aren't a lot of big-name challengers," Moore said. Gillingham received 27.5 per cent of ballots cast when he became mayor in 2022. Klein finished third in that race.

Moore said the city doesn't have the revenue sources or the necessary authority to be able to "fix" some of voters' top concerns, including homelessness, addictions and crime.

"I think people are not really happy with the state of the city right now, and (Gillingham) is getting blamed for that, and probably disproportionately getting blamed for that relative to council as a whole or, particularly, senior levels of government," he said.

Kevin Klein courted Mike Vogiatzakis voters in his bid to unseat Gillingham. (JOHN WOODS / FREE PRESS FILES)

Moore said Gillingham's first-term record may not resonate with suburban voters, and his promises of downtown renewal may not be galvanizing people outside the inner-city. He said the incumbent, who is right of centre, could be pulling support from the left side of the political spectrum.

Klein and Vogiatzakis, who are also right of centre, could be splitting votes, Moore said. Abacus said Vogiatzakis's enduring support among people who are frustrated with crime and property taxes may have blunted Klein's momentum.

While he doesn't think he's losing support to Vogiatzakis, Klein said he is concerned about the potential for vote-splitting. He made an appeal to voters who are leaning toward Vogiatzakis.

"I'm the person that can beat Scott Gillingham, so I would suggest to his supporters: switch your vote over to Kevin Klein," Klein said. "Let's all work together to bring the change that the city needs and take Scott out as our mayor."

The survey suggested Redden gained supporters who previously favoured Gillingham.

"There's a segment of the vote that was probably more on the progressive side of the spectrum or centre-left — more likely to be concerned about transit, addictions and homelessness — and Noah Redden, I think, is kind of a vessel for that support," Brown said.

The election lacks a "big name" left-of-centre candidate, Moore said.

Abacus said Redden's support is concentrated around younger people, who tend to be less likely to vote. Redden, who at 27 is the youngest mayoral candidate, said he hopes everyone gets out to vote.

Redden believes he would have been invited to debates held by CBC and CJOB last week, had the poll results been released beforehand. Gillingham, Klein and Vogiatzakis, who led Abacus's September poll, were the only candidates to take part in the debates.

— with files from Joyanne Pursaga

chris.kitching@winnipegfreepress.com

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